Posted by: stockscooter | April 10, 2012

Bonds

It makes sense to see bonds accelerate upward as oil/commodities drop.  However, for the markets to jump the prices of bonds by 2.30% to start the week is plain manipulation.  This is a low standard deviation security.  The powers that be made a huge pay-day over the weekend!  It’s now above the downward trend line.  If it stays above the trend line, this is more confirmation of weak underlying fundamentals in the economy.  Could QE3 be around the corner?   Now, having said all that, this is NOT the time to take long-term positions.  There are frequencies in the market currently that are opposing each other.  For example, this jump in bond prices came early, and can be judged as suspicious. Typically when this happens, news will break big and break soon – Big and Soon.  What it will be,  I don’t have the foggiest idea.  Just know things are a bit out-of-whack and short-term trades are the best choice, so as not to get caught in a trade long-term if the market gaps against you.  Day-trading or scalping for .5 to 1.0% a day are still marvelous returns that can be found- Let’s not get greedy.  There are certain times to change investment styles, and this is one of them-Patience is the answer.  Wait until you see the whites of their eyes, to shoot your powder.  Don’t go early, hopefully waiting for the move in your direction.  Be strategic with entry and exits.  Wait until the opportunity is clear, with the highest probabilities on your side.   As always, do your own Due Diligence on your favorite markets.

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